Below are a few news items from the last week about developments in the post-Soviet space that have been overshadowed by the Georgian events but that merit attention.
RUSSIA SUFFERS 50 BILLION US DOLLARS IN CAPITAL FLIGHT IN OCTOBER. Sergei Ignatov, president of the Bank of Russia, said that his country had seen approximately 50 billion U.S. dollars flow abroad during October. That figure compares to a total of 30 billion during the first seven months of this year and 83 billion during 2007 (lenta.ru/news/2008/11/10/ottok/). Meanwhile, the Russian stock market and ruble exchange rates continued to fall, with the Fitch Rating Agency saying that it projects lowering the sovereign credit rating of Russia from stable to negative (www.kasyanov.ru/index.html?layer_id=101&nav_id=9&id=1093).
DEMONSTRATORS SEEK CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT, NOT OF CONSTITUTION. Even as the Duma voted to extend the terms of the Russian constitution and Duma deputies, a group of approximately 150 members of various opposition figures like Boris Nemtsov and Garri Kasparov and groups like the Left Front, the Moscow SPS, and Solidarity staged a demonstration in Moscow. The participants carried signs reading "Hands Off the Constitution!" "Freedom for Russia, Bread and Water for Medvedev," and "Let us Change the Powers that Be but Not the Constitution (www.sobkorr.ru/news/491DA240C51A3.html).
DUMA TO ELIMINATE RIGHT TO JURY TRIAL FOR THOSE CHARGED WITH STATE CRIMES. Because some juries have refused to convict people the Russian authorities have charged with anti-state crimes like terrorism, espionage, and the like, the Russian government is pushing in the Duma a bill that would deprive those charged with such crimes of the right to trial by jury. According to Vladimir Vasilyev, the chairman of the Duma security committee, this step will "increase the effectiveness of measures to prevent terrorism and strengthen the struggle with this phenomenon." But opposition figures have expressed concern that this represents yet another step away from democracy there (www.ng.ru/politics/2008-11-14/2_sud.html).
PUTIN ERA APPROACHING ITS END, KASYANOV TELLS FRIENDS. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov reportedly is telling his friends and associates that the Putin era is approaching its end and that "the tower of Babylon" Putin attempted to erect will be replaced by something else (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=405112008). Meanwhile, another former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, according to the same source, is telling people that "Saakashvili is a mistake of Putin's own making," a reflection of the Kremlin leader's failure to purse a clear-signed course on Georgia (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=105112008). And in another comment about the system, Dmitry Furman, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Europe, said this week that it is difficult to say what is happening at the top of the system because "the system of power has become more closed than it was in the Soviet period" (www.apn.ru/news/article21004.htm).
MEDVEDEV'S NAMING OF OFFICER TO HEAD INGUSHETIA COULD BACKFIRE. Although Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has been wildly popular so far in Ingushetia as the replacement for the much despised Murat Zyazikov – Yevkurov's "thaw" in dealing with the Internet has been especially significant in this regard (www.ingushetia.org/news/16559.html) -- President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to turn to a military officer for this post may prove a mistake because the appointment of generals to such positions in post-Soviet Russia has not worked out for Moscow very well in the past (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1052522).
RUSSIAN DIASPORAS MUST STAND UP FOR THEIR RIGHTS, MOSCOW OFFICIAL SAYS. Aleksey Lobanov, the chairman of the World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots, told a conference of this group that ethnic Russians living abroad must be far more willing to demand proper treatment from the governments of the countries in which they find themselves (www.rosbalt.ru/2008/11/02/538288.html).
ETHNIC, CLASS CONFLICTS TEARING MOSCOW SCHOOLS APART. Media reports about clashes between pupils, students and teachers of different ethnic, religious and social classes in Moscow schools has sparked an intense discussion of what many writers are calling "a civil war" in Russian society and an indication that "the danger of conflicts in Russian society is extremely high and constantly growing" (www.rian.ru/authors/20081110/154758878.html).
ICELANDIC PRESIDENT INVITES RUSSIA TO USE KEFLAVIK BASE. Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the president of Iceland, said that Russia should be invited to use the old NATO base at Keflavik, a proposal which he is not entitled to make under the Icelandic constitution and one that "shocked" other Scandinavian diplomats, according to reports in the region's media (www.barentsobserver.com/russia-invited-to-icelands-airbase.4525408-16149.html).
MOSCOW BEGINS KURDISH LANGUAGE BROADCASTING TO MIDDLE EAST. In yet another indication that Moscow plans to step up its activities in the Middle East, the Voice of Russia radio station announced that it was beginning FM broadcasting in Iraqi Kurdistan. The station said its broadcasts would stay "outside of politics," but even Russian commentators said that was clearly impossible (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1055634).
LOSSES CLOSE BAIKAL PAPER MILL, LEAVES HUNDREDS UNEMPLOYED. The paper mill on Lake Baikal that environmental activists have sought to shut down since it was opened in Soviet times has now closed, not in response to their protests but rather because it is no longer profitable. But the consequences of the closure on the community there are already serious, with hundreds of people thrown out of work (www.aifvs.ru/nomer/599/01-1.shtml).
MEDVEDEV DENOUNCES KYIV FOR CALLING FAMINE A GENOCIDE. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sent a message to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko denouncing Kyiv's efforts to present the 1932 famine as a genocide directed against the Ukrainian people. Not only is that not true, Medvedev said, arguing that the famine hit many nations of the Soviet Union at that time, but it divides two peoples who should be fraternal allies (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=172272).
TURKEY AGREES TO TRAIN MULLAHS AND IMAMS FOR RUSSIA. The Turkish government has signed an agreement with the Union of Muftis of Russia (SMR) to train imams and mullahs for Russian mosques. The SMR leadership hailed this decision because of what it described as the secular nature of Turkey and hence that country's understanding of what Islam should be in a country like Russia (www.interfax-religion.ru/islam/?act=news&div=27334).
RUSSIA'S MUSLIMS WANT MINISTRY FOR RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS. Participants in the fourth All-Russian Forum of Muslims for Eurasian Unity called on the Russian government to create a ministry of religious affairs in order to supervise relations between the state and various religious groups (www.islamnews.ru/news-15700.html). The Moscow Patriachate and the Kremlin have long opposed any such structure, apparently viewing it as a threat to the special relationship between Orthodoxy and the Russian state.
IMAM RELEASED FROM PRISON DISAPPEARS, SUPPORTERS FEAR FOUL PLAY BY OFFICIALS. Ufa Imam Said Bayburin was released from prison camp but disappeared before his supporters could meet him, prompting fears that he may have fallen victim to official violence or deportation (www.islamcom.ru/material.php?id=712). Meanwhile, an analysis posted on the Caucasus Times portal noted that Russian prisons are radicalizing Muslims rather than reforming them, paralleling what it said were developments in the American penal system (www.caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=17741).
MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN RUSSIA LOWEST AMONG CIS COUNTRIES. The average Russian male will die before reaching his 59th birthday, the shortest lifespan of males in any country in the Commonwealth of Independent States, although lower than Turkmenistan by only a few months, according to the United Nations (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=17201) It also said that Russia's total population is likely to decline by 34 million by mid-century.
RUSSIA WILL HAVE AN ETHNIC CHINESE PRESIDENT BY 2030, DPNI'S BELOV PREDICTS. Aleksandr Belov, the leader of the openly xenophobic Movement Against Illegal Immigration (DPNI), says that if Chinese immigration continues at its current rate, Russia will have a Chinese president. But he suggested that that would occur only if there were free and fair elections, something unlikely to happen with an elite that could decide to make a dog president since dogs are "like humans in some respects" (www.nr2.ru/moskow/206195.html).
Source
Friday, November 21, 2008
Russians Cautious on Obama; No Major Changes Expected
Shirtless Putin and Obama (Compilation by Publius Pundit)
Reality is catching up fast for the Russian Federation, which begun to slowly orient its expectations towards Barack Obama's win about two weeks prior to November 4. As the Russian government and its policy analysts expected, Obama's nascent presidency will have mixed results for US-Russia relations, though cautious optimism is starting to take hold. One issue that is already grabbing headlines in Russia is the American attitude towards anti-missile shield in Europe.
As reported by the Daily Vzglyad, Obama reiterated his commitment to the Patriot missile batteries in Poland, signed earlier in August by Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice. The paper commented on Western Europe's desire for a "new beginning in relations between Russia and the US," but remained convinced that President-elect's desire not to deviate form the previous administration's plans signaled that major changes in US-Russia relations are not expected to take place anytime soon.
This attitude is highlighted by another analysis in Vzglyad, in which Russian foreign policy specialists are openly saying that they do not hope, at present, for any warming in US-Russia relations. Mikhail Margelov, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Duma Senate (upper chamber of the Russian Parliament) is quoted as saying that major changes will not take place because "too many disagreements have piled up between our countries. ... We are expecting that the US will continue the policy of selective cooperation with Russia, particularly in the area of nuclear non-proliferation and anti-terrorism initiatives." He also called on his colleagues not to "take [Obama's] election promises seriously, since they were only declarations, which are primitive in context - while the reality is always more complex."
An even more direct opinion was voiced in the same article by Alexander Hramchikhin, director of analysis at the Center of Political and Military Studies: "Obama is inexperienced in foreign policy, and will have to heavily rely on his advisors, like Senator Biden, who is more of a hawk than McCain. ... Obama himself is a "black box" - we are not talking about the color of his skin, but about the lack of knowledge on what he will be like as President, since he has absolutely no relevant experience."
Still, there was some cautious optimism voiced by the establishment. In the same article, Konsantin Kosachev, Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the Duma (and counterpart to Congressman Berman of the House Foreign Relations Committee) stated that "Obama's victory gives hope for a new reality in US-Russia relations, but it's premature to predict when that would actually take place. Obama will be under pressure from his team of advisors, whose approaches to Russia do not differ significantly from that of the Bush Administration." On the other hand, Mr. Kosachev highlighted Obama's biggest advantage in foreign policy: "Obama's thinking is not influenced too much by the Cold War. Senator Obama did not engage in openly hostile rhetoric towards Russia, which gives hope for the strengthening of our cooperation on key issues." More cautious optimism was also voiced by Sergey Markov, Duma Deputy, who stated that he "could actually imagine a personal friendship between Presidents Obama and Medvedev, since they belong to the same generation. ... They are both Internet users, and probably listened to similar music and watched similar films."
Daily Izvestia reminded its readers that Barack Obama was more popular in Russia than John McCain, citing the polling numbers by the official Levada Center. The polls were conducted in late October in eight largest cities across the Russian Federation, and 27% of Russians were favorable towards Senator Obama, while 15% were favorable towards Senator McCain. More than half of the Russian respondents could not say with which American political party can Russian government better deal with; 39% stated they prefer the Democratic party, while only 11% named Republicans.
Daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta attempted to predict that Obama's policy towards Russia will be constructive and will revolve around issues such as nuclear non-proliferation. Assistant Director of Russian Academy of Sciences Viktor Kremenyuk stated that the "starting point in US-Russia relations is now very low, and its up to the leadership of America and Russia to raise our relations to a new level. With Obama as President, both sides can continue working on issues laid out by President G. W. Bush."
Kremenyuk stated that Obama will pay attention to Russia' internal processes, but will not seek to interfere in them. On the other hand, Sergey Karaganov, Chairman of Foreign and Defense Policy at the Duma Senate stated that real changes in US-Russia relations could take place no earlier than in half a year from now. He also stated that "there will be positive changes, but Russia too will have to work hard to escape this "confrontational spiral."
This article was originally published at RealClearPolitics
Yevgeny Bendersky specializes in research and analysis of Eurasian affairs. His previous work includes position as the Senior Strategic Advisor at Jenkins Hill International, LLC. Prior to working at Jenkins Hill, Mr. Bendersky was the Foreign Affairs Legislative Assistant for Congressman Curt Weldon (Member of Congress 1987-2007). His views are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Real Russia Project or Discovery Institute.
Source
NYT Is Misreporting That Russia Is "Backing Off"
Under the headline Russia Backs Off on Europe Missile Threat, the NYT's Stephen Castle hawks several misconceptions. He writes:
President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia retreated Friday from his threat to deploy missiles on Europe's borders, but only if President-elect Barack Obama joined Russia and France in calling for a conference on European security by next summer.
- Russia did not retreat on any missile deployment.
- Russia did not threaten to deploy missiles on 'Europe's borders'.
At a meeting in Nice hosted by President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Mr. Medvedev backed away from the bellicose speech he gave last week, just hours after Mr. Obama won the United States presidential election. On Friday, the Russian leader argued instead that all countries "should refrain from unilateral steps" before discussions on European security next summer.
- The speech referred to was not bellicose.
- The speech was not related to Obama's election.
Mr. Sarkozy, who presided over the meeting between Russia and the 27 European Union nations in his capacity as the union's president, helped ease the way for Mr. Medvedev's retreat. The French leader supported the idea of talks on a new security architecture for Europe and suggested that they could be held by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in June or July.
- There was nothing taken back by Medvedev in relation to a European security conference.
- By achieving Sarkozy's support for such a conference Russia won a major point.
Let us start with that 'bellicose speech':
Each year the Russian president has to make a 'state of the nation' speech to the parliament. This years speech was supposed to be held on October 23 but was postponed twice:
Speculation surfaced that quickly changing world economic conditions were forcing Medvedev to rewrite his remarks, forcing its delay.
It was pure coincident that the speech was held shortly after the U.S. election and it has nothing to do with the U.S. election or Obama.
Neither was the speech bellicose. Ninety percent of it was on economic, social and inner issues. With regard the U.S. 'missile defense' plans Medvedev said:
"An Iskander missile system will be deployed in the Kaliningrad Region to neutralize if necessary the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe," Medvedev said in his first state of the nation address to parliament.
The conditional stationing of Iskander's in Kalinigrad had already been announced back in July. Medvedev's statement was thereby nothing new. It was clearly a conditioned statement and up to today that condition has not changed one bit. So where is the Russian 'retreat'?
Castle and his editors could, by the way, use some geographic lessons. Kaliningrad clearly lies deep within Europe's borders.
There was another part in Medvedev's speech that should concern U.S. citizens much more than short-range missiles in Kalinigrad but went, to my knowledge, unreported in any U.S. media. Medvedev announced:
"We earlier planned to remove three missile regiments of a missile division deployed in Kozelsk [Kaluga Region] from combat duty and disband the division by 2010. I have made a decision to withdraw these plans," Medvedev said, noting that Russia had been forced to take this measure.
The division has RS-18 Stiletto intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles).
The distance from Kaluga Region to New York is 4,700 miles. Because of the so called 'missile defense' the U.S. hawks want to install in Poland and Czechia, Russia reversed plans for a unilateral reduction of intercontinental missiles. The potential threat to the U.S. mainland will now be bigger than necessary. Why is this not discussed in any U.S. media?
The call for a new security architecture in Europe is a Russian idea and again nothing new:
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev used his visit to Berlin on June 5 for proposing an all-European security pact with Russia's participation, inherently in opposition to NATO (Interfax, Itar-Tass, June 5, 6).
...
Once approved, the pact would be legally binding, in the form of a second edition of the OSCE's 1976 Helsinki Final Act. The Kremlin wants a new pact to be approved at an all-European summit.
So far Medvedev's calls for such a security pact had been left without official answer from 'western' leaders. The U.S. has informally opposed any such conference. To now have French and EU support for such a conference is a major diplomatic win for Russia.
The NYT clearly has a warped view on Russia. It sees a threat where there is a conditional answer to U.S. aggression. It sees a Russian retreat and loss when there is a big diplomatic victory and the real loser here is bellicose U.S. policy.
The NYT fails to report that Sarkozy thinks the U.S. plans for 'missile defense' in Europe are nuts. Even the Wall Street Journal does a better job here:
"Deployment of a missile-defense system would bring nothing to security in Europe … it would complicate things, and would make them move backward." Mr. Sarkozy said many European leaders shared his assessment, ...
This is the real news from the EU-Russia conference, and it is very good news. Russia 'backing off' from a response to U.S. aggression is pure fantasy.
Such fantasies are dangerous as the can lead to wrong decisions in very serious matters.
Source
Window on Eurasia: ‘In Russia, There Won’t Be a Crisis But Rather Something Worse’
Paul Goble
Vienna, November 12 – After first trying to deny that there was a crisis in Russia and then blaming it all on events in the West, the Russian government has taken measures that are exacerbating the situation in ways that threaten to create a revolutionary situation, according to an increasing number of Russian commentators.
And while some of these suggestions reflect the apocalypticism characteristic of much discourse, the arguments they offer and the evidence they provide in support of their views merits attention particularly as that country faces more problems ahead given rising anger among both key elites and the population as a whole about what is going on.
One of the most thorough and thoughtful analyses of just how serious the situation may be becoming is offered by Dmitry Tayevsky, an analyst who writes for the Babr.ru portal. He argues that the foundation of the current crisis in Russia reflects "not economic problems but serious administrative miscalculations" (babr.ru/?pt=news&event=v1&IDE=48608).
By attempting to deny that there is a crisis in Russia, he says, Moscow simply created a situation that gave birth to rumors that are having a more negative impact on that country than the truth would have. And then by trying to blame everything on the international financial crisis, the regime acted in ways that may help in the West but that makes the situation in Russia worse.
"The massive supply of money to enterprises belonging to those close to the Kremlin was like fighting fire with gasoline," Tayevsky continues. "Such actions hardly will save the economy," but they are already generating "massive dissatisfaction among others" who are not receiving such funds and thus are condemned "to economic and some to political death."
Moscow has relied on oil and gas industries to provide it with super profits, but the operators of the companies involved have not invested money in finding new deposits and now, with oil and gas prices dropping, they are no longer profitable. And, the Irkutsk analyst continues, they are beginning to "eat themselves alive."
One way that Moscow might have gotten out of this situation was to go "along the path of banana republics," by allowing Western firms to build what Russians were not. But because the Russian marketplace was never attractive – Russian power holders have made sure of that – few in the West were willing to invest.
Some smaller reprocessing and manufacturing companies have emerged but with the banking crisis, they no longer have the liquidity to operate at earlier levels, forcing many of them to stop paying their employees or even letting many or in few cases all of them go – or, still worse from the point of view of social stability, hiring guest workers at even lower wages.
"In Russia," Tayevsky notes, "the Jews and the United States are always the guilty parties," at least according to the media and the popular mentality. But "in this case," the guilty are to be found in the government – and "not the government of Chubais and Gaydar … but in the existing Putin-Medvedev regime."
Among their mistakes are "ineffective investment of money the country has received from the sale of raw materials abroad," the intentional disregard of the development of manufacturing, the corruption of society, and the continuing denial of the existence of problems everyone can see.
What should be done? Individual Russians should certainly avoid panic, but there is clearly a need for extraordinary measures, including the possible formation of a provisional crisis government that could address the current problems rather than continue to engage in public relations stunts.
But that is not going to be easy or without risks, Tayevsky concludes with regret, noting that "of course there will not be a crisis in Russia. There will be something immeasurably worse. But decent words for what it will be have not yet been devised at least in the Russian language."
It would be a big mistake to ignore his argument. Others are making a similar case. An article on the Novopol.ru site yesterday says that "the most important thing for the country is to avoid a social explosion," something that it suggests is becoming ever more difficult as more and more people find themselves at risk (novopol.ru/text55557.html).
Other analysts are pointing to rising tensions among various social and ethnic groups (www.newizv.ru/news/2008-11-12/101377/). And perhaps most immediately seriously of all, ever more people are reporting rising tensions between the government and the military, the force on which the regime would have to rely (www.nr2.ru/policy/205818.html).
The list of such baleful commentaries could be extended almost at will, and one, intended to highlight how much the Russian people and the Russian state have gained since the August 1998 default perhaps unintentionally highlights just how dangerous the situation is or may soon become.
In an essay posted online today, Valery Tishkov, the head of the Moscow Institute of Ethnology and a member of the Social Chamber, describes the last ten years as "the intercrisis decade," a term that suggests the frightening past that many Russians hoped to escape may be replaced now by something even worse.
And he begs people to remember that over this period, there has been "a real improvement in the conditions of the lives of people even if emotionally and psychologically, the people of Russia continue to live in the paradigm of crisis and the rhetoric of complaint" (2008.russ.ru/layout/set/print//Mirovaya-povestka/Sosredotochenie-gosudarstva).
Source
Vienna, November 12 – After first trying to deny that there was a crisis in Russia and then blaming it all on events in the West, the Russian government has taken measures that are exacerbating the situation in ways that threaten to create a revolutionary situation, according to an increasing number of Russian commentators.
And while some of these suggestions reflect the apocalypticism characteristic of much discourse, the arguments they offer and the evidence they provide in support of their views merits attention particularly as that country faces more problems ahead given rising anger among both key elites and the population as a whole about what is going on.
One of the most thorough and thoughtful analyses of just how serious the situation may be becoming is offered by Dmitry Tayevsky, an analyst who writes for the Babr.ru portal. He argues that the foundation of the current crisis in Russia reflects "not economic problems but serious administrative miscalculations" (babr.ru/?pt=news&event=v1&IDE=48608).
By attempting to deny that there is a crisis in Russia, he says, Moscow simply created a situation that gave birth to rumors that are having a more negative impact on that country than the truth would have. And then by trying to blame everything on the international financial crisis, the regime acted in ways that may help in the West but that makes the situation in Russia worse.
"The massive supply of money to enterprises belonging to those close to the Kremlin was like fighting fire with gasoline," Tayevsky continues. "Such actions hardly will save the economy," but they are already generating "massive dissatisfaction among others" who are not receiving such funds and thus are condemned "to economic and some to political death."
Moscow has relied on oil and gas industries to provide it with super profits, but the operators of the companies involved have not invested money in finding new deposits and now, with oil and gas prices dropping, they are no longer profitable. And, the Irkutsk analyst continues, they are beginning to "eat themselves alive."
One way that Moscow might have gotten out of this situation was to go "along the path of banana republics," by allowing Western firms to build what Russians were not. But because the Russian marketplace was never attractive – Russian power holders have made sure of that – few in the West were willing to invest.
Some smaller reprocessing and manufacturing companies have emerged but with the banking crisis, they no longer have the liquidity to operate at earlier levels, forcing many of them to stop paying their employees or even letting many or in few cases all of them go – or, still worse from the point of view of social stability, hiring guest workers at even lower wages.
"In Russia," Tayevsky notes, "the Jews and the United States are always the guilty parties," at least according to the media and the popular mentality. But "in this case," the guilty are to be found in the government – and "not the government of Chubais and Gaydar … but in the existing Putin-Medvedev regime."
Among their mistakes are "ineffective investment of money the country has received from the sale of raw materials abroad," the intentional disregard of the development of manufacturing, the corruption of society, and the continuing denial of the existence of problems everyone can see.
What should be done? Individual Russians should certainly avoid panic, but there is clearly a need for extraordinary measures, including the possible formation of a provisional crisis government that could address the current problems rather than continue to engage in public relations stunts.
But that is not going to be easy or without risks, Tayevsky concludes with regret, noting that "of course there will not be a crisis in Russia. There will be something immeasurably worse. But decent words for what it will be have not yet been devised at least in the Russian language."
It would be a big mistake to ignore his argument. Others are making a similar case. An article on the Novopol.ru site yesterday says that "the most important thing for the country is to avoid a social explosion," something that it suggests is becoming ever more difficult as more and more people find themselves at risk (novopol.ru/text55557.html).
Other analysts are pointing to rising tensions among various social and ethnic groups (www.newizv.ru/news/2008-11-12/101377/). And perhaps most immediately seriously of all, ever more people are reporting rising tensions between the government and the military, the force on which the regime would have to rely (www.nr2.ru/policy/205818.html).
The list of such baleful commentaries could be extended almost at will, and one, intended to highlight how much the Russian people and the Russian state have gained since the August 1998 default perhaps unintentionally highlights just how dangerous the situation is or may soon become.
In an essay posted online today, Valery Tishkov, the head of the Moscow Institute of Ethnology and a member of the Social Chamber, describes the last ten years as "the intercrisis decade," a term that suggests the frightening past that many Russians hoped to escape may be replaced now by something even worse.
And he begs people to remember that over this period, there has been "a real improvement in the conditions of the lives of people even if emotionally and psychologically, the people of Russia continue to live in the paradigm of crisis and the rhetoric of complaint" (2008.russ.ru/layout/set/print//Mirovaya-povestka/Sosredotochenie-gosudarstva).
Source
Window on Eurasia: Financial Crisis Creating Problems for Russia’s Orthodox, Muslim and Jewish Leaders
Below are a few news items from the last week about developments in the post-Soviet space that have been overshadowed by the Georgian events but that merit attention.
RUSSIA SUFFERS 50 BILLION US DOLLARS IN CAPITAL FLIGHT IN OCTOBER. Sergei Ignatov, president of the Bank of Russia, said that his country had seen approximately 50 billion U.S. dollars flow abroad during October. That figure compares to a total of 30 billion during the first seven months of this year and 83 billion during 2007 (lenta.ru/news/2008/11/10/ottok/). Meanwhile, the Russian stock market and ruble exchange rates continued to fall, with the Fitch Rating Agency saying that it projects lowering the sovereign credit rating of Russia from stable to negative (www.kasyanov.ru/index.html?layer_id=101&nav_id=9&id=1093).
DEMONSTRATORS SEEK CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT, NOT OF CONSTITUTION. Even as the Duma voted to extend the terms of the Russian constitution and Duma deputies, a group of approximately 150 members of various opposition figures like Boris Nemtsov and Garri Kasparov and groups like the Left Front, the Moscow SPS, and Solidarity staged a demonstration in Moscow. The participants carried signs reading "Hands Off the Constitution!" "Freedom for Russia, Bread and Water for Medvedev," and "Let us Change the Powers that Be but Not the Constitution (www.sobkorr.ru/news/491DA240C51A3.html).
DUMA TO ELIMINATE RIGHT TO JURY TRIAL FOR THOSE CHARGED WITH STATE CRIMES. Because some juries have refused to convict people the Russian authorities have charged with anti-state crimes like terrorism, espionage, and the like, the Russian government is pushing in the Duma a bill that would deprive those charged with such crimes of the right to trial by jury. According to Vladimir Vasilyev, the chairman of the Duma security committee, this step will "increase the effectiveness of measures to prevent terrorism and strengthen the struggle with this phenomenon." But opposition figures have expressed concern that this represents yet another step away from democracy there (www.ng.ru/politics/2008-11-14/2_sud.html).
PUTIN ERA APPROACHING ITS END, KASYANOV TELLS FRIENDS. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov reportedly is telling his friends and associates that the Putin era is approaching its end and that "the tower of Babylon" Putin attempted to erect will be replaced by something else (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=405112008). Meanwhile, another former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, according to the same source, is telling people that "Saakashvili is a mistake of Putin's own making," a reflection of the Kremlin leader's failure to purse a clear-signed course on Georgia (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=105112008). And in another comment about the system, Dmitry Furman, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Europe, said this week that it is difficult to say what is happening at the top of the system because "the system of power has become more closed than it was in the Soviet period" (www.apn.ru/news/article21004.htm).
MEDVEDEV'S NAMING OF OFFICER TO HEAD INGUSHETIA COULD BACKFIRE. Although Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has been wildly popular so far in Ingushetia as the replacement for the much despised Murat Zyazikov – Yevkurov's "thaw" in dealing with the Internet has been especially significant in this regard (www.ingushetia.org/news/16559.html) -- President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to turn to a military officer for this post may prove a mistake because the appointment of generals to such positions in post-Soviet Russia has not worked out for Moscow very well in the past (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1052522).
RUSSIAN DIASPORAS MUST STAND UP FOR THEIR RIGHTS, MOSCOW OFFICIAL SAYS. Aleksey Lobanov, the chairman of the World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots, told a conference of this group that ethnic Russians living abroad must be far more willing to demand proper treatment from the governments of the countries in which they find themselves (www.rosbalt.ru/2008/11/02/538288.html).
ETHNIC, CLASS CONFLICTS TEARING MOSCOW SCHOOLS APART. Media reports about clashes between pupils, students and teachers of different ethnic, religious and social classes in Moscow schools has sparked an intense discussion of what many writers are calling "a civil war" in Russian society and an indication that "the danger of conflicts in Russian society is extremely high and constantly growing" (www.rian.ru/authors/20081110/154758878.html).
ICELANDIC PRESIDENT INVITES RUSSIA TO USE KEFLAVIK BASE. Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the president of Iceland, said that Russia should be invited to use the old NATO base at Keflavik, a proposal which he is not entitled to make under the Icelandic constitution and one that "shocked" other Scandinavian diplomats, according to reports in the region's media (www.barentsobserver.com/russia-invited-to-icelands-airbase.4525408-16149.html).
MOSCOW BEGINS KURDISH LANGUAGE BROADCASTING TO MIDDLE EAST. In yet another indication that Moscow plans to step up its activities in the Middle East, the Voice of Russia radio station announced that it was beginning FM broadcasting in Iraqi Kurdistan. The station said its broadcasts would stay "outside of politics," but even Russian commentators said that was clearly impossible (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1055634).
LOSSES CLOSE BAIKAL PAPER MILL, LEAVES HUNDREDS UNEMPLOYED. The paper mill on Lake Baikal that environmental activists have sought to shut down since it was opened in Soviet times has now closed, not in response to their protests but rather because it is no longer profitable. But the consequences of the closure on the community there are already serious, with hundreds of people thrown out of work (www.aifvs.ru/nomer/599/01-1.shtml).
MEDVEDEV DENOUNCES KYIV FOR CALLING FAMINE A GENOCIDE. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sent a message to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko denouncing Kyiv's efforts to present the 1932 famine as a genocide directed against the Ukrainian people. Not only is that not true, Medvedev said, arguing that the famine hit many nations of the Soviet Union at that time, but it divides two peoples who should be fraternal allies (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=172272).
TURKEY AGREES TO TRAIN MULLAHS AND IMAMS FOR RUSSIA. The Turkish government has signed an agreement with the Union of Muftis of Russia (SMR) to train imams and mullahs for Russian mosques. The SMR leadership hailed this decision because of what it described as the secular nature of Turkey and hence that country's understanding of what Islam should be in a country like Russia (www.interfax-religion.ru/islam/?act=news&div=27334).
RUSSIA'S MUSLIMS WANT MINISTRY FOR RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS. Participants in the fourth All-Russian Forum of Muslims for Eurasian Unity called on the Russian government to create a ministry of religious affairs in order to supervise relations between the state and various religious groups (www.islamnews.ru/news-15700.html). The Moscow Patriachate and the Kremlin have long opposed any such structure, apparently viewing it as a threat to the special relationship between Orthodoxy and the Russian state.
IMAM RELEASED FROM PRISON DISAPPEARS, SUPPORTERS FEAR FOUL PLAY BY OFFICIALS. Ufa Imam Said Bayburin was released from prison camp but disappeared before his supporters could meet him, prompting fears that he may have fallen victim to official violence or deportation (www.islamcom.ru/material.php?id=712). Meanwhile, an analysis posted on the Caucasus Times portal noted that Russian prisons are radicalizing Muslims rather than reforming them, paralleling what it said were developments in the American penal system (www.caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=17741).
MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN RUSSIA LOWEST AMONG CIS COUNTRIES. The average Russian male will die before reaching his 59th birthday, the shortest lifespan of males in any country in the Commonwealth of Independent States, although lower than Turkmenistan by only a few months, according to the United Nations (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=17201) It also said that Russia's total population is likely to decline by 34 million by mid-century.
RUSSIA WILL HAVE AN ETHNIC CHINESE PRESIDENT BY 2030, DPNI'S BELOV PREDICTS. Aleksandr Belov, the leader of the openly xenophobic Movement Against Illegal Immigration (DPNI), says that if Chinese immigration continues at its current rate, Russia will have a Chinese president. But he suggested that that would occur only if there were free and fair elections, something unlikely to happen with an elite that could decide to make a dog president since dogs are "like humans in some respects" (www.nr2.ru/moskow/206195.html).
Source
RUSSIA SUFFERS 50 BILLION US DOLLARS IN CAPITAL FLIGHT IN OCTOBER. Sergei Ignatov, president of the Bank of Russia, said that his country had seen approximately 50 billion U.S. dollars flow abroad during October. That figure compares to a total of 30 billion during the first seven months of this year and 83 billion during 2007 (lenta.ru/news/2008/11/10/ottok/). Meanwhile, the Russian stock market and ruble exchange rates continued to fall, with the Fitch Rating Agency saying that it projects lowering the sovereign credit rating of Russia from stable to negative (www.kasyanov.ru/index.html?layer_id=101&nav_id=9&id=1093).
DEMONSTRATORS SEEK CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT, NOT OF CONSTITUTION. Even as the Duma voted to extend the terms of the Russian constitution and Duma deputies, a group of approximately 150 members of various opposition figures like Boris Nemtsov and Garri Kasparov and groups like the Left Front, the Moscow SPS, and Solidarity staged a demonstration in Moscow. The participants carried signs reading "Hands Off the Constitution!" "Freedom for Russia, Bread and Water for Medvedev," and "Let us Change the Powers that Be but Not the Constitution (www.sobkorr.ru/news/491DA240C51A3.html).
DUMA TO ELIMINATE RIGHT TO JURY TRIAL FOR THOSE CHARGED WITH STATE CRIMES. Because some juries have refused to convict people the Russian authorities have charged with anti-state crimes like terrorism, espionage, and the like, the Russian government is pushing in the Duma a bill that would deprive those charged with such crimes of the right to trial by jury. According to Vladimir Vasilyev, the chairman of the Duma security committee, this step will "increase the effectiveness of measures to prevent terrorism and strengthen the struggle with this phenomenon." But opposition figures have expressed concern that this represents yet another step away from democracy there (www.ng.ru/politics/2008-11-14/2_sud.html).
PUTIN ERA APPROACHING ITS END, KASYANOV TELLS FRIENDS. Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov reportedly is telling his friends and associates that the Putin era is approaching its end and that "the tower of Babylon" Putin attempted to erect will be replaced by something else (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=405112008). Meanwhile, another former prime minister Yevgeny Primakov, according to the same source, is telling people that "Saakashvili is a mistake of Putin's own making," a reflection of the Kremlin leader's failure to purse a clear-signed course on Georgia (www.warweb.ru/GetMaterial.asp?Page=105112008). And in another comment about the system, Dmitry Furman, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Europe, said this week that it is difficult to say what is happening at the top of the system because "the system of power has become more closed than it was in the Soviet period" (www.apn.ru/news/article21004.htm).
MEDVEDEV'S NAMING OF OFFICER TO HEAD INGUSHETIA COULD BACKFIRE. Although Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has been wildly popular so far in Ingushetia as the replacement for the much despised Murat Zyazikov – Yevkurov's "thaw" in dealing with the Internet has been especially significant in this regard (www.ingushetia.org/news/16559.html) -- President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to turn to a military officer for this post may prove a mistake because the appointment of generals to such positions in post-Soviet Russia has not worked out for Moscow very well in the past (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1052522).
RUSSIAN DIASPORAS MUST STAND UP FOR THEIR RIGHTS, MOSCOW OFFICIAL SAYS. Aleksey Lobanov, the chairman of the World Coordination Council of Russian Compatriots, told a conference of this group that ethnic Russians living abroad must be far more willing to demand proper treatment from the governments of the countries in which they find themselves (www.rosbalt.ru/2008/11/02/538288.html).
ETHNIC, CLASS CONFLICTS TEARING MOSCOW SCHOOLS APART. Media reports about clashes between pupils, students and teachers of different ethnic, religious and social classes in Moscow schools has sparked an intense discussion of what many writers are calling "a civil war" in Russian society and an indication that "the danger of conflicts in Russian society is extremely high and constantly growing" (www.rian.ru/authors/20081110/154758878.html).
ICELANDIC PRESIDENT INVITES RUSSIA TO USE KEFLAVIK BASE. Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the president of Iceland, said that Russia should be invited to use the old NATO base at Keflavik, a proposal which he is not entitled to make under the Icelandic constitution and one that "shocked" other Scandinavian diplomats, according to reports in the region's media (www.barentsobserver.com/russia-invited-to-icelands-airbase.4525408-16149.html).
MOSCOW BEGINS KURDISH LANGUAGE BROADCASTING TO MIDDLE EAST. In yet another indication that Moscow plans to step up its activities in the Middle East, the Voice of Russia radio station announced that it was beginning FM broadcasting in Iraqi Kurdistan. The station said its broadcasts would stay "outside of politics," but even Russian commentators said that was clearly impossible (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1055634).
LOSSES CLOSE BAIKAL PAPER MILL, LEAVES HUNDREDS UNEMPLOYED. The paper mill on Lake Baikal that environmental activists have sought to shut down since it was opened in Soviet times has now closed, not in response to their protests but rather because it is no longer profitable. But the consequences of the closure on the community there are already serious, with hundreds of people thrown out of work (www.aifvs.ru/nomer/599/01-1.shtml).
MEDVEDEV DENOUNCES KYIV FOR CALLING FAMINE A GENOCIDE. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sent a message to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko denouncing Kyiv's efforts to present the 1932 famine as a genocide directed against the Ukrainian people. Not only is that not true, Medvedev said, arguing that the famine hit many nations of the Soviet Union at that time, but it divides two peoples who should be fraternal allies (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=172272).
TURKEY AGREES TO TRAIN MULLAHS AND IMAMS FOR RUSSIA. The Turkish government has signed an agreement with the Union of Muftis of Russia (SMR) to train imams and mullahs for Russian mosques. The SMR leadership hailed this decision because of what it described as the secular nature of Turkey and hence that country's understanding of what Islam should be in a country like Russia (www.interfax-religion.ru/islam/?act=news&div=27334).
RUSSIA'S MUSLIMS WANT MINISTRY FOR RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS. Participants in the fourth All-Russian Forum of Muslims for Eurasian Unity called on the Russian government to create a ministry of religious affairs in order to supervise relations between the state and various religious groups (www.islamnews.ru/news-15700.html). The Moscow Patriachate and the Kremlin have long opposed any such structure, apparently viewing it as a threat to the special relationship between Orthodoxy and the Russian state.
IMAM RELEASED FROM PRISON DISAPPEARS, SUPPORTERS FEAR FOUL PLAY BY OFFICIALS. Ufa Imam Said Bayburin was released from prison camp but disappeared before his supporters could meet him, prompting fears that he may have fallen victim to official violence or deportation (www.islamcom.ru/material.php?id=712). Meanwhile, an analysis posted on the Caucasus Times portal noted that Russian prisons are radicalizing Muslims rather than reforming them, paralleling what it said were developments in the American penal system (www.caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=17741).
MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY IN RUSSIA LOWEST AMONG CIS COUNTRIES. The average Russian male will die before reaching his 59th birthday, the shortest lifespan of males in any country in the Commonwealth of Independent States, although lower than Turkmenistan by only a few months, according to the United Nations (www.annews.ru/news/detail.php?ID=17201) It also said that Russia's total population is likely to decline by 34 million by mid-century.
RUSSIA WILL HAVE AN ETHNIC CHINESE PRESIDENT BY 2030, DPNI'S BELOV PREDICTS. Aleksandr Belov, the leader of the openly xenophobic Movement Against Illegal Immigration (DPNI), says that if Chinese immigration continues at its current rate, Russia will have a Chinese president. But he suggested that that would occur only if there were free and fair elections, something unlikely to happen with an elite that could decide to make a dog president since dogs are "like humans in some respects" (www.nr2.ru/moskow/206195.html).
Source
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)